Statside Soccer

As we head into the final game week of 2025 and another MLS season comes to an end, the conversation around end-of-season accolades intensifies. While some awards like the Golden Boot are fairly straightforward, the awarding of the prestigious Most Valuable Player is a bit more subjective. It all comes down to one word: ‘Valuable.’ What does everyone mean when they say valuable? Highest contract? Give it to Messi then. Highest net worth? Again, just give it to Messi. 

In a sporting context, ‘valuable’ often implies that a player is most important to their team. Generally, this is how the league thinks of this as well, but it is also much more nuanced than standard statistics can show. Just because a player scores the most goals doesn’t always mean they are the most valuable asset on their team. Who sets up their goals? What if they score a lot, but their team always loses? While it is impressive that a player could play every minute of every game in a season, does that inherently make them the most important player? How important are the goals they are scoring?

Certainly, there is a correlation between scoring goals and being a valuable player. The entire objective of the game is to get the ball into your opponent’s net. That’s how you win. So it would make sense to assume that players who are most prolific at achieving that goal should be considered the most valuable. 

This season, we have a three way sprint for the Golden Boot – Major League Soccer’s annual award for the player who scores the most goals in the regular season. Currently, the “Greatest of All Time” Inter Miami magician Lionel Messi leads the league with 26 goals. Right behind him with 24 goals this season: LAFC’s speedy winger Denis Bouanga and Nashville’s English journeyman Sam Surridge with 23 goals. In all likelihood, Messi will end up with the Golden Boot as we head into the last weekend of games.

So, if goal scoring shouldn’t be the main deciding factor in the MVP race, what about the players who setup the goals? How about a little love for the selfless assist kings? An argument can be made that a player who sets up a goal scoring opportunity is just as, if not more important than the player who puts it in the back of the net. Let’s take a look at the players with the most assists this season.

When looking at the players with the most assists this season, we see that there’s not a ton of overlap in these top five (except for Messi, of course). Anders Dreyer of new kids on the block San Diego FC leads all players in assists this year with sixteen, just above the GOAT, a revitalized Evander, and debutant Zinkernagel. 

It’s here that we can definitely start making a stronger case for Messi to retain his MVP crown from last year. Being number first in goals and second in assists this year is nothing to sneeze at. When looking at total goal contributions (both goals and assists) Messi stands alone at the top with forty-one total contributions. But look who is number two:

That’s right, it’s the delightful Dane, Anders Dreyer popping up again. Dreyer was just shy of the top five in goal scorers with seventeen goals this year on top of his league-leading sixteen assists. These thirty-three goal contributions put him eight back behind the great Messi who has been a part of just over half of all of Inter Miami’s goals this season (76). Similarly, he leads in nearly every standard stat when looking at his per 90-minute statistics compared to the other top players from this season.

So, surely that seals the deal right? Messi is yet again the Most Valuable Player in MLS. The second-ever player to win the award twice since the legend that is Preki did in the early years of MLS. The first-ever player to win the award in back-to-back seasons. Build the statue! Retire the jersey! Put him in more commercials! The Argentinian magician can add yet another accolade to his already storied career. 

Maybe so, but before we get too far down the road, I want us to revisit the data and look just a little closer and make a case for one more candidate: our delightful Dane Anders Dreyer.

As we saw previously, Dreyer leads the league in assists and is a top ten goal scorer. His combined goal contributions have him second overall in the league. These stats alone, however, are not enough, and shouldn’t be enough, to support a case for him to be this year’s MVP over Messi. Like we discussed in the beginning, this game is about putting the ball in the back of the net and while Dreyer has definitely been able to be involved in putting the ball in the net, he hasn’t been able to outperform Messi. 

But what if we analyze the quality of their goals, not just the quantity? Beyond style, how consequential are these goals to the team’s success?

When we look at the goals these two are involved in a little more closely, the race gets a little more nuanced. Looking at goal contributions (goals or assists) that lead to either a game win or a tie we can see how much these players directly contributed to their team getting either 1 or 3 points on the table. I see this as somewhat of a way to quantify how valuable both of these players are to their respective teams’ success.

This past season, Messi contributed to 11 game-winning plays (9 game-winning goals, two game-winning assists) and Dreyer contributed to 12 game-winning plays (7 game-winning goals, 5 game-winning assists). Similarly, Messi had two contributions lead to a draw while Dreyer only had one. This means that Messi was essentially responsible for helping Inter Miami secure 32 points this season. Dreyer, on the other hand, was responsible for helping San Diego secure 37 points. 

At a high level, Messi was directly involved in 56% of the points Inter Miami achieved this season. This should not really come as a shock to most soccer fans. The surprise here comes actually from Dreyer – he was directly involved in 62% of points earned in San Diego’s inaugural season. Considering their place at the top of the Western conference, that certainly makes him a key figure in their success this season. Some would say a valuable player. Maybe the most valuable? Certainly for San Diego. 

It’s here that I’d like to reiterate that this is not the “end all, be all” stat for deciding the MVP race. As with every statistic in soccer, game states can certainly play a role in which goals could end up as the “game-deciding” goals. Similarly, when thinking about overall scoring and assist stats, game states could also impact those as well with players possibly over or under performing due to how the game unfolds. However, I think this adds a bit of interesting nuance to the conversation and also gives Dreyer the flowers he’s earned. San Diego had a great first season and a lot of that is due to their Danish forward. 

At the end of the day, though, Messi is Messi. He’s been something the likes of which this league has never seen before and may never again. He makes every team he’s on better and has the numbers to support a strong MVP candidacy. Though if you’re an Inter Miami fan, I’d be wary because what’s good for the GOAT is not always good for the flock. In the previous 29 seasons a player has only won the MVP and MLS Cup 4 times. So, while the award might be wonderful for Messi, history is not on his side for a title too. 

But still, it’s Messi.